[Report] European Gas & Power Price Market Research, Trends, Analysis TOC

DATAMONITOR VIEW
- CATALYST
- SUMMARY
ANALYSIS
- UK households must brace themselves for rising prices aswholesale energy costs soar
  - A combination of speculation, commodity driven investmentstrategies and supply fears are fuelling gas contracts at the NBP
  - The retail power sector is highly likely to see higherprices passed on to end-users if wholesale prices continue to rise
  - The outlook for the power sector mirrors the gas marketgiven its dependence on gas as a generation fuel
  - Passing through higher commodity costs to the end-user isrelatively transparent in the forecourt-crude markets
  - Passing through higher commodity costs to the end-user isrelatively transparent in the forecourt-crude markets
  - The domestic energy sector looks in line with otherindustries that have increased in concentration
  - The supermarket competition question is directlycomparable with the power sector' s competitive profile
- At the prompt end of the European baseload power curvesentiment continues to remain bullish
  - Belgian wholesale power prices continue to rise from April2008
  - After Q1' s short downturn, French power prices firm aheadof Summer' 08
  - German baseload power prices firm sharply through thecourse of Q2
  - Dutch baseload power contracts rise sharply at both theshort and far ends of the curve
  - Like the rest of Europe, capacity fears alone are notdriving baseload prices in the UK
- At the very near end of the forward curve EU gas pricesfinally dip
  - Uncertainty over long-term supply is a concern despitecontracts softening at the near end
  - TTF gas prices illustrate the uneasy sentiment going outon the forward curve
  - Belgian gas prices firm on the far end of the forwardcurve and soften on front month delivery
APPENDIX
- This brief builds upon Datamonitor' s extensive pricingproposition
- Glossary
  - This brief contains a number of industry standard terms
- Our analysis builds on other sources to provide greaterinsight
  - Further Reading
  - Extended Methodology
- We assess the profitability of fossil fuel plants acrossnorthwest Europe
- Our bespoke services can be tailored to your specificneeds
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
List of Figures
- Figure 1: As supplier margins are squeezed by risingwholesale gas costs, it is inevitable that retail bills will rise
- Figure 2: NBP gas contracts are trading at a premium forthe winter and summer periods going forward
- Figure 3: The forecast looks gloomy for retail customersas wholesale price pressure will inflate household bills in the nearfuture
- Figure 4: Forward power prices are following the gastrajectory given the current generation mix and rising input costs
- Figure 5: Petrol pump prices are transparent and mirrorcommodity price movements
- Figure 6: A positive linear relationship exists betweenforecourt prices and the cost of commodity
- Figure 7: HHI' s between retail supermarket and retailenergy supply illustrates the complex nature of assessing competition andmarket structure
- Figure 8: At the prompt end of the European baseloadpower curve sentiment continues to remain bullish
- Figure 9: Belgian baseload power prices rose across theboard with Month-Ahead accelerating the quickest
- Figure 10: Month-Ahead baseload power contractsrebounded and firmed abruptly in contrast to last month' s dip
- Figure 11: The German forward curve spiked at both endsas speculators rallied on baseload contracts remaining bullish in the nearfuture
- Figure 12: Dutch power curves reflect the bullishsentiment prevalent throughout the rest of Europe
- Figure 13: The UK power market continued to showresilience with rising contracts
- Figure 14: At the very near end of the forward curve EUgas prices finally dip
- Figure 15: Security of supply is a concern firmingprices out on the curve with spot contracts softening
- Figure 16: Going out to 2009 supply issues appear to beat the front of traders minds as bullish Year-Ahead contracts spike
- Figure 17: Spot prices dipped as warmer temperatures anda reduction in gas demand eased prices ahead of Q3
- Figure 18: Energy pricing proposition
- Figure 19: Generation spread methodology

Monthly Price Brief - A Review of European Gas and Power Price Trends: June 2008